Yellen Sinyalkan Hike Rates, Tapi Tergantung Gejolak Pasar

Ketua Fed Janet Yellen mengatakan bahwa Federal Reserve masih mengharapkan untuk adanya kenaikan suku bunga secara bertahap di saat mereka juga berusaha membuat itu jelas bahwa masih berlanjutnya gejolak di pasar dapat membuat bank sentral tentunya menjauh dari beberapa kenaikan suku bunga yang telah diperkirakan oleh pembuat kebijakan untuk tahun 2016.

Yellen dalam testimoninya yang diberikan pada hari Rabu kepada House Financial Services Committee di Washington mengatakan bahwa kondisi keuangan di Amerika Serikat akhir-akhir ini menjadi kurang mendukung untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada perkembangan ini, jika ekonomi terbukti lesu, dapat membebani outlook untuk aktivitas ekonomi dan pasar kerja.

Yellen, yang memulai  testimoni selama dua hari di Capitol Hill juga mengatakan kepada anggota parlemen bahwa ketidakpastian atas prospek ekonomi China dan kebijakan nilai tukar "telah memperburuk kecemasan terhadap outlook untuk pertumbuhan global" dan ditambah dari penurunan terbaru dari harga minyak dan komoditas lainnya. Penurunan harga yang lebih dalam di harga komoditas dapat memicu tekanan di seluruh dunia yang akan mengancam terhadap permintaan ekspor AS, ucapnya.

Yellen masih membuka pintu untuk kenaikan di bulan Maret, meskipun dia tidak secara eksplisit merujuk waktu pengetatan kebijakan atau pertemuan atau pertemuan Fed selanjutnya.

Ward McCharthy, kepala ekonom di Jefferies LLC di New York mengatakan bahwa dia masih memegang senjatanya. Gejolak di pasar keuangan  tidak akan membuat mereka mundur. Itu bisa saja mempengaruhi kecepatan dimana mereka akan menormalkan suku bunga, namun mereka masih berkomitmen untuk menormalkan suku bunga.

After 17 Years, ECB Reveals $547 Billion in Central-Bank Assets

The euro area’s 19 national central banks hold investment assets worth almost half a trillion euros, according to previously secret information published on Friday by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The ECB set out details of the so-called Agreement on Net Financial Assets, a document signed before the introduction of the euro a decade and a half ago that regulated how the previously independent national central banks would manage their holdings of foreign currencies and bonds. While some of those national authorities have still to publish their individual accounts, the ECB said the outstanding amount stood at 490 billion euros ($547 billion) at the end of 2015.

Even though the assets are separate from those built up by the ECB for monetary policy purposes -- such as the current quantitative easing program -- the increase in the total level of holdings during the sovereign debt crisis has led to accusations that national authorities were printing money to serve their own governments, a practice that would be illegal under European law. ANFA sets quotas for each country and aims to prevent national central banks’ investment activity from interfering with monetary policy.
Confidential Document

“Although ANFA was previously a confidential document, the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem took the unanimous decision that publishing the text along with an explanatory document would better serve their commitment to greater transparency,” the ECB said in the statement on its website, made after 9 p.m. Frankfurt time on Friday.

National assets have grown at an average rate of 5 percent per year since the introduction of euro banknotes in 2002, the ECB said, adding that the increase was slower than that for cash in circulation. National central banks will release more details about their ANFA activities in their respective annual reports.

The document also includes an annex on the calculation of the quota system, which regulates how much each national central bank can hold. Before the introduction of the euro, some national institutions had considerable assets, often related to the management of their currencies. The assets now are frequently related to the management of pension funds and other tasks not related to monetary policy.

The quota system became briefly controversial in 2013 when the Irish central bank was allowed to exceed its own limit in order to process a debt swap with the government related to the country’s banking collapse. The deal was criticized by Germany and others for being close to prohibited monetary financing.

“ANFA purchases are entirely a matter for national central banks,” ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press conference on Dec. 3. “I would exclude completely any possibility of monetary financing.”

Source : Bloomberg

Fed update: Wrap up on Jackson Hole

Several FOMC members have voiced their opinions this weekend at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The most important was Vice Chair Stanley Fischer who participated in a panel discussion on Saturday on inflation dynamics and monetary policy.  

Fischer delivered a speech which was somewhat more hawkish than what we heard  from NY Fed President Dudley last week. Fisher acknowledged the improvement in the labour market, stating that the latest run of employment gains were "well above the amount needed to continue the strengthening of the labor market". At the same time, he noted that the FOMC was surprised that despite the large improvement in the labour market and the drop in the unemployment rate, core inflation had not trended higher over the past five years. This led him to note that "While much evidence points to at least some ongoing role for slack in helping to explain movements in inflation, this influence is typically estimated to be modest in magnitude, and can easily be masked by other factors".

Moving on to explaining what was the factor behind current low inflation rates, he sounded pretty confident that they were mostly transitory and that the bulk of the impact on inflation had already been felt. In particular, he mentioned the impact from the USD, lower oil prices and the decline in other commodity prices would likely peak this year. Given the stable (consumer) inflation expectations, the Vice Chair expected that when these transitory factors dissipate, inflation would move towards the 2% target, but noticing some risks to this view given the decline in market based inflation expectations.  

"In terms of when to hike rates, we see Fischer's comments as consistent with a Fed rate hike in December", says Danske Bank. 

It seems that the Fed would like to get a little more confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction before hiking. However, it is also worth noticing that we do not need to see inflation rates anywhere near 2% before lift-off, as long as the trend in core inflation is not down. To sum up, George, Mester, Bullard and Lockhart are ready to hike either now or very soon. Kocherlakota wants to wait well into next year.

5 Alasan yang Akan Buat The Fed Tunda Naikan Rate

Berkat pemulihan ekonomi AS, empat minggu dari sekarang The Fed diperkirakan mulai menaikkan suku bunganya untuk pertama kalinya dalam satu dekade.

Tapi minutes dari rapat bulan lalu, yang dipublikasikan semalam, menyampaikan sinyal yang lain. Dalam minutes itu memang disebutkan para pejabat mengakui adanya perkembangan yaitu tingginya penyerapan tenaga kerja. Pada dasarnya, The Fed hanya mampu mencapai satu dari dua mandatnya, yaitu ketenagakerjaan maksimal. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja sangat pesat, yang menyebabkan tingkat pengangguran turun ke 5,3% atau terendah dalam tujuh tahun.

Tapi masih ada serangkaian masalah yang dapat mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan the Fed. Serangkaian masalah ini bisa menghambat rencana the Fed antara sekarang dan nanti, baik internal maupun eksternal. Berikut lima faktor yang berpotensi membuat the Fed menunda kenaikan suku bunga.

Apresiasi Dollar
Dollar terus menguat dalam setahun terakhir, yang didukung oleh pemulihan ekonomi AS dan prospek kenaikan suku bunga the Fed. Selain itu, penguatan dollar juga disebabkan oleh lesunya ekonomi negara lain, baik maju maupun berkembang. Yield obligasi AS terus menanjak, dianggap imbal hasil yang menarik di saat negara maju lain menawarkan tingkat lebih rendah.

Masalahnya, penguatan dollar membuat barang impor menjadi lebih murah, mengurangi tekanan inflasi. Penguatan dollar juga menekan ekonomi negara berkembang, yang sanat rentan dengan fluktuasi nilai tukar. Sudah banyak negara yang mengalami pelemahan nilai tukar di saat ekonomi lesu, seperti Indonesia, Brazil, Meksiko dan Turki. Kenaikan suku bunga the Fed tentunya bisa menambah tekanan ke ekonomi mereka.

Perlambatan China
Minutes dari rapat bulan lalu juga menunjukkan para pejabat khawatir dengan perkembangan di China. Padahal rapat ini terjadi sebelum devaluasi yuan. Mereka melihat kejatuhan bursa saham China tidak akan banyak berdampak pada prospek pertumbuhannya. Tapi sebagian pejabat khawatir perlambatan tajam ekonomi China bisa membahayakan prospek ekonomi AS.

Sejak rapat itu, kondisi memburuk dengan China mendevaluasi mata uang nya. Langkah itu dianggap sebagai upaya China mendorong ekspor, mengguncang pasar keuangan global karena menimbulkan kecemasan ekonomi China lebih buruk dari dugaan. Pelemahan yuan bisa memicu perang mata uang di kawasan, yang kemudian semakin memperkuat dollar AS. Selain itu, defisit perdagangan AS bisa bertambah.

Perlambatan Lapangan kerja
Meski lapangan kerja tumbuh pesar, minutes menunjukkan para pejabat masih khawatir kondisinya belum cukup sehat. Mereka berpandangan masih banyak orang yang berhenti mencari kerja dan tenaga ahli yang terpaksa bekerja paruh waktu. Bila laporan payroll Agustus, data payroll terakhir yang akan dilihat the Fed sebelum rapat September, menunjukkan angka yang lebih rendah dari bulan lalu, the Fed bisa menunda kenaikan.

Melesetnya Target Inflasi
Bukan hanya penguatan dollar yang menghambat laju inflasi, tapi juga penurunan harga komoditas. Harga minyak terus jatuh, menyentuh ke level terendah dalam 5 tahun. Banyak pengamat mengatakan prospek meningkatnya ekspor minyak Iran setelah pencabutan sanksi bisa semakin menekan harga. Meski positif untuk konsumen, hal ini bisa mempersulit the Fed mencapai target inflasi 2%. The Fed pernah mengatakan tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga sampai yakin inflasi bisa kembali ke target.

Kisruh RAPBN AS
Kongres AS kembali bekerja bulan depan setelah resesi selama Agustus dan banyak pekerjaan menunggu, di antara merampungkan RPABN pada 1 Oktober dan menaikkan pagu utang untuk mencegah default. Adanya ancaman bangkrutnya pemerintah AS (government shutdown) dan kisruh anggaran yang menyebabkan the Fed menunda pemangkasan program pembelian obligasi pada 2013. Hal yang sama bisa terulang kembali, memaksa the FEd menunda kenaikan suku bunga.

Bank Sentral China Jamin Tak Ada Pelemahan Yuan Lagi

Bank Sentral China (PBOC) memberi jaminan kepada pasar bahwa tidak ada alasan untuk yuan jatuh lebih dalam lagi, membantah spekulasi ada keingingan di Beijing untuk pelemahan lebih lanjut.

Di saat yuan melemah untuk hari ketiga, Kamis kemarin, PBOC memastikan pihaknya punya alat untuk menjaga stabilitas yuan dan membuka kemungkinan nilai tukar kembali menguat di masa mendatang. PBOC mengatakan lingkungan ekonomi kuat, surplus perdagangan, kondisi fiskal yang terjaga dan cadangan devisa berlimpah memberi dukunga yang kuat pada nilai tukar.

Pernyataan ini ditujukan untuk menjawab isu seputar adanya dorongan dari tingkat tinggi agar nilai tukar lebih ditekan. Reuters mendapat laporan dari sumbernya bahwa kekuatan besar dalam pemerintah mendesak agar yuan dibiarkan melemah lebih jauh lagi, dengan devaluasi mencapai 10%.

Tapi Deputi Gubernur Yi Gang menepis isu itu, sembari mengklaim tidak perlu menyesuaikan yuan untuk mendongkrak ekspor. Ia juga berjanji pihaknya akan memperbaiki mekanisme penetapan harga yuan, lebih membuka pasar valasnya dan menarik investor asing dengan meliberalisasi pasar keuangan.

Yunani yakin kesepakatan bailout akan tercapai

Yunani dan para krediturnya menggelar pertemuan tertutup untuk membicarakan persyaratan penggelontoran bailout ketiga. Pada Selasa (10/8) kemarin, perundingan berlangsung hingga larut malam.

Menurut dua orang sumber Bloomberg, pihak negosiator fokus terhadap detil, termasuk outlook fiskal, dengan nilai total bailout diprediksi sedikit lebih tinggi dari 86 miliar euro atau US$ 95 miliar.

Sementara, berdasarkan laporan Kantor Berita Athena, kedua belah pihak setuju mengenai target defisit anggaran yakni 0,25% dari Produk Domestik Bruto pada 2015, 0,5% surplus di tahun 2016, 1,75% surplus di 2017, dan 3,5% surplus pada 2018.

"Perundingan antara kedua belah pihak berlangsung lancar. Ada sejumlah pertanyaan dan isu yang ingin mereka diskusikan lagi dan lagi. Tapi saya rasa, ada optimisme bahwa akan tercapai kesepakatan tak lama lagi," jelas Menteri Keuangan Euclid Tsakalotos kepada reporter di Athena.

Jika kesepakatan tercapai, parlemen Yunani harus menyetujui kebijakan yang menjadi persyaratan kreditur -ECB, IMF, dan badan dana penyelamatan European Stability Mechanism- sebelum rapat menteri keuangan zona euro yang dijadwalkan Jumat mendatang digelar.

Sumber : BLOOMBERG

Waiting for lift-off UK interest rate rises

To gauge how high interest rates will go, and how fast, we need to understand how fiscal and monetary policy interact, writes Gavin Kelly

 With prominent members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) – not least the governor – lining up in recent weeks to talk up the prospect of rate rises at some point in the coming months, this week’s meeting has already sparked another burst of speculation about when the first hike in eight years will happen.

Whatever your take on the exact timings of monetary lift-off – whether you’d opt for August or April – the far more important issue is the medium-term path of increases that follow.

And the nature of that path depends on all manner of things – not least George Osborne’s fiscal plan.

This is, of course, a statement of the screamingly obvious. It’s hardly news that what the Treasury does affects Threadneedle Street and vice versa. Which is why it is surprising that the overall mix of monetary and fiscal policy – and how the two interact – is so rarely put under the spotlight. 

Economic commentary tends to oscillate between focused bouts of fiscal and monetary scrutiny. But the balance between the two? Not so much.

The Bank takes account of the fiscal policy being set across town (welcome to the “monetary reaction function”). In seeking stable inflation, and in order to underpin growth, the theory is that the Bank conditions its monetary stance to take account of the chancellor’s fiscal choices. But external scrutiny of this policy interaction – assessments of whether the right balance has been struck – are hindered by a lack of transparency about these assumptions.

This is one reason why the recent speech by outgoing MPC member David Miles (to the Resolution Foundation) was an important one. It set out the extent to which fiscal policy will act as a drag on interest rates. 

In 2018 – by when, bear in mind, most of the work of austerity is expected to have been done – Miles calculates that fiscal consolidation will still drag interest rates downwards by more than 0.75% compared to what would otherwise be the case.

This is one of the factors explaining the (commonly held) assumption that interest rates will approach a “new normal” over the next few years that is likely to be about half as high as the 5% that prevailed pre-financial crisis. Even in the second half of the parliament this “fiscal headwind” will still be blowing strong.

Some caveats are needed. Miles was at pains to stress that these estimates are his own, not official Bank figures. Nor is it clear what the basis for this calculation is: is the counterfactual no austerity at all? What assumption is made about sterling? 

We should also note that the Miles figure differs from other calculations in the public domain. When the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) looked at the interaction between the parties’ differing fiscal plans and interest rates it estimated that the Labour and Liberal Democrat fiscal plans would raise the base rate by 0.7 percentage points; whereas Conservative plans would raise them by 0.3 percentage points.

In other words, the extra tightening associated with achieving an overall surplus (Conservative) rather than a current budget one (Labour/Lib Dems) created a 0.4 percentage point drag on interest rates.

The case for introducing more transparency isn’t mere technocratic trimming. The balance struck between monetary and fiscal policy has big consequences. There are obvious distributional implications (all else equal, mortgage holders win; savers lose). 

There are ramifications too for the capital allocation process, the current account, and the risk of an asset-bubble. The list goes on: the macro-mix matters.

Above all better public understanding of the trade-offs between fiscal and monetary policy will help inform a key macro-policy dilemma of our times.

It’s quite likely that we are now closer to the next recession than we are to the financial crisis. And as things stand we are utterly ill-prepared: rockbottom interest rates and high levels of public debt leave us with few (conventional) policy tools. Creating more space for monetary policy to react to a future downturn is vital. Yet doing so precipitously would be hugely counterproductive, risking the very recession that we are seeking to avoid.

Monetary and fiscal policy matter greatly in their own right. Looked at in isolation we have robust institutions in place to hold policy-makers to account – far more so than was the case prior to the Bank gaining its independence and the creation of the OBR. But scrutiny of the overall macroeconomic policy mix? In some ways that’s become more opaque since policy responsibility bifurcated.

Securing the right blend of policy over the medium term is what we should be focused on. That requires more visibility of how policy makers think monetary and fiscal policy interact.

We now know a little bit more about this than we used to. But in an era defined by big economic uncertainties, which only serve to reinforce the need for policy transparency, wouldn’t it be better if all this was brought out into the open?

Source : Theguardian

The Fed tetap membuka kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga

The Fed tetap membuka kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga tapi menegaskan ingin melihat dulu perbaikan ekonomi dan kenaikan inflasi sebelum melakukannya.

Pernyataan dari the Fed pasca rapat regulernya memang tidak menyediakan waktu kenaikan. Banyak analis memperkirakan kenaikan pertama terjadi pada September nanti, tapi sang ketua Janet Yellen menegaskan bahwa keputusan kenaikan rate bergantung pada ekonomi ekonomi terkini.

Memang, dalam pernyataan itu, the Fed mengakui lapangan kerja, perumahan dan pembelanjaan konsumen membaik. The Fed masih optimis inflasi bisa menyentuh targetnya 2%. Pernyataan rapat terakhir hanya sedikit berubah dari rapat bulan sebelumnya, di mana modifikasi mengindikasikan ekonomi semakin sehat.

Menggambarkan kondisi lapangan kerja, the Fed untuk pertama kalinya menyebut ”solid” untuk pertumbuhan lapangan kerja dan penurunan tingkat pengangguran, yang menyentuh level terendah dalam tujuh tahun di 5,3%. Selain itu, the Fed mengindikasikan hanya membutuhkan sedikit lagi perbaikan lapangan kerja, bukannya perbaikan sigfinikan seperti sebelumnya, sinyal bahwa lapangan kerja mendekati maksimal.

Michael Hanson, ekonom dari Bank of America Merrill Lynch, mengatakan pandangan optimis the Fed mengenai lapangan kerja mengindikasikan para pejabat semakin dekat dengan kenaikan suku bunga. Ia memperkirakan itu terjadi pada September. “Mereka belum memutuskannya, tapi kita semakin dekat dengan memenuhi kriteria untuk kenaikan suku bunga,” katanya.

Yellen pernah menekankan bahwa bila the Fed menaikkan suku bunga, hanya akan dilakukan secara bertahap. Tujuannya agar tetap membantu ekonomi yang masih membutuhkan bunga rendah. Ia mengindikasikan kenaikan dalam jumlah kecil, lalu rehat sembari mengevaluasi dampak kenaikan itu.

Sumber : Strategydesk