USDJPY Update 24 Maret 2016

Jelang akhir sesi asia, USDJPY kembali mencoba menguji level 112.80 yang merupakan level Fibo 61% dan high rabu kemarin. Penebusan high kemarin, akan membawa USDJPY menguji level Fibo 76.4 di kisaran 113.31, jika gagal maka USDJPY akan kembali turun dengan target 111.52

S/R Minggu ini : 

Resistance : 112.10 ; 112.50 ; 113.12 ; 113.68 ; 114.00 ; 114.65 ; 115.50 ; 116.16 ; 117.43 ; 117.85 ; 118.20 ; 118.90 ; 119.45 ; 120.00 ; 120.50 ; 121.19 ; 121.85 (level 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) ; 122.45 ; 123.00 ; 123.50 ; 123.87 (level 50% Fibonacci expansion) ; 124.43 ; 125.00 ; 125.84 (level 61.8% Fibonacci expansion) ; 126.50 ; 127.17.

Support : 110.66 ; 110.07 ; 109.45 ; 108.24 ; 107.38 ; 106.24 ; 105.48 ; 104.12 ; 103.00.

USDJPY mengabaikan Data Japan Manufacturing PMI

• USDJPY pecah fase konsolidasi dan beringsut lebih tinggi untuk mengambil 38,2% retracement dari Fed sell-off (113,816-110,667) di 111,87.
• Pasangan ini memperpanjang kenaikan ke 112 pegangan di perdagangan Asia awal, namun tidak mampu mempertahankan kenaikan dan telah beringsut lebih rendah untuk saat ini perdagangan sekitar 111,85 tingkat.
• Data yang dirilis sebelumnya menunjukkan bahwa Jepang Nikkei PMI Manufacturing menyelinap ke kontraksi, datang di 49,1 pada bulan Maret dari sebelumnya 50,1.
• Pasar sebagian besar mengabaikan data yang PMI yang buruk, USDJPY terus tergelincir, dengan support terdekat di 111,81  dan resistance di 111,95 (jam 5-DMA).
• Penembusan di bawah 111,81 membuat USDJPY kembali menguji 111,58 (trendline) dan kemudian 111,42 (Low 21 Maret).
• Penembusan di atas 112,24 (50% Fib dari 113,816-110,667 retrace) akan membawa USDJPY menuju  resistance berikutnya di 112,61 (61,8% Fib dari 113,816-110,667 retrace).

USDJPY Update 11 Februari 2016

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USDJPY | Update 31 Juli 2015

Pair Mayor | Update 15 Mei 2015

Yen stabil di kisaran resisten 120.50

Jelang penutupan Amerika Yen break resisten 120.50 dan berpeluang menguji 122. Trend jangka pendek bullish selama bertahan di atas 119.80.

Resisten minor sesi saat ini berada di 120.50 dan jika di break akan mendorong Yen naik ke 121.20 dan 122.00

120.30 bisa dipertimbangkan untuk Buy Yen dengan Stop loss berada di 119.80, target di 121.18 dan  122.
Resisten :
120.43 (High 7 Apr) | 121.20 (High 20 maret) | 122.01 (High 10 Maret) | 123  

Support : 120.29 (Kijun-Sen) | 119.79 (MA 200 Daily) | 119.45 (61.8% retracement  swing 118.71 - 120.73) | 118.70 (Low 3 April) 

USDJPY is trading above 200 day HMA, jump till 121.50 is possible

• RES 4: 122.05
  
• RES 3: 121.50
  
• RES 2: 121
  
• RES 1: 120.50

 PRICE: 120.16 @ 5:23 GMT

• SUP 1: 119.75 (200 day HMA)
  
• SUP 2: 119.17 (Ichimoku cloud top)
  
• SUP 3: 118.20
  
• SUP 4: 116.86

COMMENTARY:
USDJPY has broken major resistance 120 and confirms short term bullishness a jump till 121.50 cannot be ruled out. On the upside minor resistance is around 120.35 and any break above would extend gains till 121/121.50. Intraday bearish invalidation can happen only below 119.75 level. 

Yen continues range unimpressed by BOJ minutes

Yen is currently trading above 119 against the dollar trapped within its range of 118 & 120; the larger range remains 116-121.

• Bank of Japan today released its monetary policy minutes earlier today, it failed to impress upon any major movement.

• Yen remained trapped between exceptional monetary easing policy from BOJ & safe haven flows due to political uncertainty in the Euro zone.

• GDP data released last week showed Japan is technically out of Recession and growing at 0.6% mom.

• So far the easing has failed to impact substantially aftermath of the sales tax hike by Prime Minister Abe.

Current week -

• The range is expected to continue and yen to benefit from any uncertainty.

• Small business confidence on Tuesday, household, National CPI, Industrial production data on Friday will be of high importance to assess the impact of weak yen and expansionary monetary policy.

• Market is expecting another round of easing by mid this year but vote for last increase was 5-4.

Divergent monetary policy will keep the yen elevated against the dollar only capped by occasional risk aversion.